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November

The S&P500 is at new highs, while the foreign indices are still in correction, but trending up lately. The joys of market timing haven't gotten any easier. It looks like the Fed is going to continue to support the economy thru the 2020 election at least. So the chance of a recession next year seems to have diminished. The valuations of U.S. stocks worry me, but the tax implications of more capital gains has so far prevented me from any more portfolio trimming. If I keep things as they are, I might still actually get a tax refund for this year. I will be tight, but possible. As I said in my last post, the tax complications of market timing have me thinking about just keeping a fixed allocation. I'm still thinking about doing that in my taxable accounts and limiting market timing to tax deferred only. I'm still under-invested because I think we're late in the cycle. The strategy was to invest more if we every get a recession again. But I'm starting to wonder if ...
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March

Wow, almost thru March, how time flies. Well, here we are, the economy still muddling along. The yield curve apparently inverted, or one definition of it did, anyway. The Federal Reserve has stood down for now. The markets are trying to figure out what to make of it all. Meanwhile, I'm getting an education in the joys of market timing. The aforementioned yield curve inversion is a good example. It is supposed to be one of the premier signals of a coming recession. But there are different definitions of said inversion. And then there is the endless second guessing about whether this time is different. Long rates are SO low, maybe the signal won't work the same now. And everyone is so aware of the yield curve as a signal now, maybe it can't work the same if everybody is expecting it. And if it does work, who knows what the lag time will be. So the yield curve is just one leading indicator that is fraught with issues. But there are about a dozen more that I watch and try t...
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January

December gave us a vicious correction in the stock market. The 1-year interest rate is now above the 2, 3, 5, and 7 year interest rates. So, much of the yield curve has inverted. However, the 10-year rate is still barely higher than the shorter rates. So, the yield curve hasn't "officially" inverted. But it's essentially flat. It's a worrying sign. Should I act on it? That's the $10,000 question.  Unemployment has stopped dropping and is now equal to it's 12-month moving average. Another worrying sign. However, other labor indicators haven't yet rolled over, so it's a mixed signal there. The latest employment numbers were better than expected.  Stocks appear to be rebounding from the correction. The flat yield curve and flat unemployment suggests that I should be fading this rally with at least a part of my portfolio. It will be another good 2 weeks before the other leading economic indicators are in for this month. I'm not sure I can wait ...
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December Update

Well, things sure took a turn. The market seems to be selling off in a panic in one of the worst Decembers ever. No shortage of possible reasons. Could be tariff jitters, fears about the chaos in the White House, rising interest rates, fear of a global recession, Brexit, a long in the tooth economic expansion, or any number of other reasons.  It's all enough to make a guy question his investment strategy. But I'm sticking with the plan for now, even as I watch my paper profits from last year dwindle.
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October Update

This month saw a couple more leading economic indicators turn red. There are now 5 out of 14 indicators underwater. A couple haven't come in yet for the month. The S&P500 could turn negative anytime. But labor is still strong and the yield curve hasn't inverted yet, although it might this next month when the Fed is expected to make another rate increase. If the yield curve and the market turn negative, that would be enough to put half the indicators underwater.  In addition, Europe has slowed and is possibly in a recession already. China is said to be slowing as well. With ongoing trade disputes, the future is uncertain.
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September Update

Things are looking up in September. The US market is at new highs, although foreign and emerging market stocks are lagging. That's partly because of the strong dollar. Leading economic indicators will no doubt look good again this month. We've even finally gotten some rain and cooler weather in my part of the country.  But the news is still full of trade wars and fears of emerging market contagion. And a few pundits are always warning about how horrible the next downturn will be. It continues to be hard to ignore the news. I find myself looking for an excuse to "do something." I keep wanting to reduce my risk or lock in some gains or SOMETHING!  Always trying to outsmart myself. Perhaps a default to simplicity is a good antidote for this. Just stick with your plan! It's a good plan, but only if you stick with it! Or, that's what I keep telling myself anyway. Time will tell.  Update: the leading economic indicators did indeed come in looking pretty good, bu...
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August Update

No real news to report. The market is not providing any excitement of late. Mostly just reporting this out of shear boredom. Acknowledging the arrival of August. We're in the summer doldrums. I think I'll take a nap. Leading economic indicators still look good. Only two negatives for last month; rising oil prices and fed tightening.
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