March
Wow, almost thru March, how time flies. Well, here we are, the economy still muddling along. The yield curve apparently inverted, or one definition of it did, anyway. The Federal Reserve has stood down for now. The markets are trying to figure out what to make of it all.
Meanwhile, I'm getting an education in the joys of market timing. The aforementioned yield curve inversion is a good example. It is supposed to be one of the premier signals of a coming recession. But there are different definitions of said inversion. And then there is the endless second guessing about whether this time is different. Long rates are SO low, maybe the signal won't work the same now. And everyone is so aware of the yield curve as a signal now, maybe it can't work the same if everybody is expecting it. And if it does work, who knows what the lag time will be.
So the yield curve is just one leading indicator that is fraught with issues. But there are about a dozen more that I watch and try to make sense of. Then there's the tax consequences of market timing. And there's the psychological conflict of my brain wanting to be both a value investor and a market timer. Hard to be both at the same time! Then there's the question of portfolio allocation and how much risk to take and do I invest in foreign stocks or just domestic and on and on and on. It's enough to drive you crazy, or me anyway.
I've about decided to stick to a modest portfolio allocation and just hold it forever. But shouldn't valuations have some influence on your investment decisions? And it sure would be nice to sidestep those recessions, etc, etc, etc. And pretty soon I'm back where I started. Gee, investing sure is fun (sarcasm).
Meanwhile, I'm getting an education in the joys of market timing. The aforementioned yield curve inversion is a good example. It is supposed to be one of the premier signals of a coming recession. But there are different definitions of said inversion. And then there is the endless second guessing about whether this time is different. Long rates are SO low, maybe the signal won't work the same now. And everyone is so aware of the yield curve as a signal now, maybe it can't work the same if everybody is expecting it. And if it does work, who knows what the lag time will be.
So the yield curve is just one leading indicator that is fraught with issues. But there are about a dozen more that I watch and try to make sense of. Then there's the tax consequences of market timing. And there's the psychological conflict of my brain wanting to be both a value investor and a market timer. Hard to be both at the same time! Then there's the question of portfolio allocation and how much risk to take and do I invest in foreign stocks or just domestic and on and on and on. It's enough to drive you crazy, or me anyway.
I've about decided to stick to a modest portfolio allocation and just hold it forever. But shouldn't valuations have some influence on your investment decisions? And it sure would be nice to sidestep those recessions, etc, etc, etc. And pretty soon I'm back where I started. Gee, investing sure is fun (sarcasm).
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