January

December gave us a vicious correction in the stock market. The 1-year interest rate is now above the 2, 3, 5, and 7 year interest rates. So, much of the yield curve has inverted. However, the 10-year rate is still barely higher than the shorter rates. So, the yield curve hasn't "officially" inverted. But it's essentially flat. It's a worrying sign. Should I act on it? That's the $10,000 question. 

Unemployment has stopped dropping and is now equal to it's 12-month moving average. Another worrying sign. However, other labor indicators haven't yet rolled over, so it's a mixed signal there. The latest employment numbers were better than expected. 

Stocks appear to be rebounding from the correction. The flat yield curve and flat unemployment suggests that I should be fading this rally with at least a part of my portfolio. It will be another good 2 weeks before the other leading economic indicators are in for this month. I'm not sure I can wait that long to make a decision.

Update: I decided to sell half my positions, locking in a net profit. Ironically, I can't even get the rest of the economic indicators for the month because of the government shutdown.

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