September Update

Things are looking up in September. The US market is at new highs, although foreign and emerging market stocks are lagging. That's partly because of the strong dollar. Leading economic indicators will no doubt look good again this month. We've even finally gotten some rain and cooler weather in my part of the country. 

 But the news is still full of trade wars and fears of emerging market contagion. And a few pundits are always warning about how horrible the next downturn will be. It continues to be hard to ignore the news. I find myself looking for an excuse to "do something." I keep wanting to reduce my risk or lock in some gains or SOMETHING!  Always trying to outsmart myself. Perhaps a default to simplicity is a good antidote for this. Just stick with your plan! It's a good plan, but only if you stick with it! Or, that's what I keep telling myself anyway. Time will tell. 

Update: the leading economic indicators did indeed come in looking pretty good, but the housing permits were down year over year. The capital spectator blog suggests that we've seen the peak for this cycle. That's a worrying sign. But the calculated risk blog notes that the housing starts trend is still up and that residential investment is still low compared to other peaks. He concludes that we are a couple of years away from a peak in housing. He could be wrong, but maybe his analysis will help me stick to my plan a while longer. 

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