November

The S&P500 is at new highs, while the foreign indices are still in correction, but trending up lately. The joys of market timing haven't gotten any easier. It looks like the Fed is going to continue to support the economy thru the 2020 election at least. So the chance of a recession next year seems to have diminished. The valuations of U.S. stocks worry me, but the tax implications of more capital gains has so far prevented me from any more portfolio trimming. If I keep things as they are, I might still actually get a tax refund for this year. I will be tight, but possible.

As I said in my last post, the tax complications of market timing have me thinking about just keeping a fixed allocation. I'm still thinking about doing that in my taxable accounts and limiting market timing to tax deferred only. I'm still under-invested because I think we're late in the cycle. The strategy was to invest more if we every get a recession again. But I'm starting to wonder if we're just going to drag along in this slow growth economy for the rest of time. 

Meanwhile, Trump is still stuck in a trade war and now he's under an impeachment investigation. So political volatility seems to be the new normal.

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